On Tuesday, November 3, the United States holds its midterm elections: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are up. Donald Trump is not on the ballot. What is at stake is control of Congress, currently in Republican hands. The Decision Desk HQ forecast of October 30 gives Democrats an 82% chance of winning the House and 62% of winning the Senate, and the Polymarket and Kalshi markets put them at 93% and 90% for the House and 65% and 64% for the Senate. Reuters/Ipsos measured Trump's approval at 31% on October 20, the lowest of his two terms, and Democrats lead the congressional preference 47% to 35%. The first polling places open at 5:00 a.m. Eastern in Vermont (4:00 a.m. in Mexico City) and the first close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern (5:00 p.m. in Mexico City) in Indiana and Kentucky. The Senate could be decided around midnight, while the House may take days.
The week opens with the Last Quarter Moon in Leo on Sunday the 1st at 2:28 p.m. (Mexico City time), at 9° of Leo and square the Sun in Scorpio. A last quarter marks the moment to review the ground covered, and Leo speaks of leadership and of the figure that holds the attention. On Tuesday the 3rd at 2:30 a.m. (Mexico City time), the Moon enters Virgo, the sign of scrutiny and counting, so polling places open and close under a Moon that counts, measures and compares.
On Wednesday the 4th at 8:25 a.m. (Mexico City time), Mercury retrograde joins the Sun exactly at 12°10' of Scorpio, a retrograde cazimi the day after the vote. Mercury rules information and the word, and in Scorpio it reviews what lies beneath the surface. It is a conjunction that invites reading the results in full and with calm, especially because the House may take days to be decided. Mercury and Venus turn direct again on November 13.
Trump's birth chart (born June 14, 1946 at 10:54 a.m. in Queens, with Sun in Gemini and Ascendant in Leo) receives exact transits in those days. When polling places open, the Moon has just passed over his Ascendant. Saturn in Aries squares his natal Mercury in Cancer, and Jupiter in Leo squares his Midheaven in Taurus, the point of public image. Saturn tests what is said and measured, and Jupiter amplifies exposure, so both coincide with an election that works as an evaluation of his term, even though he is not on the ballot. This reading describes the climate of the sky. To know who is more likely to win, there are the polls and forecasts cited above.